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Signs of recovery emerge as first monthly rise in UK commercial property prices

Date Published: 10th August 2009
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Retail warehouses saw the largest hike in values in July, up 1.2%, with returns close to 2% that month.

July's rise in prices comes after a 0.8% fall in June, when CBRE said UK commercial property prices were nearing an inflexion point, and follows several high-profile companies saying the sector may be improving.

The all-property total return was a positive 0.8% in July, but a negative 8.7% for the year to end-July. The all-property equivalent yield was static at 8.3%, while all property rental values fell 0.4% in July, after a dip of 0.9% in June.

"This month's monthly index results reveal the undoubted sea-change in investor sentiment that has taken place over the past month," said David Wylie, CBRE's head of economics and forecasting.


"The strong appetite for prime assets appears to have broadened out sufficiently to allow a stabilisation and improvement in the wider market," Wylie said in a statement.
"Although concerns remain over the near-term prospects for secondary assets with weaker covenants, this month's figures seem to confirm that investors have awoken to what is now widely being seen as a once in a generation buying opportunity."

CBRE is one of the biggest contributors of data to benchmark UK index compiler Investment Property Databank (IPD), whose monthly commercial property index is due out next week.
The CBRE data also showed rental values continued to fall across all property sectors, but firming yields more than offset their impact on valuations.


There were other positive signs in the economy this week for UK commercial property, but they are mixed with troubling indicators which were sufficient for the Bank of England to pump more money into the economy with a further £50 billion of QE measures to maintain the momentum of recovery.

Britain's second biggest insurer, Aviva, was the latest of several companies to express its improved sentiments about UK commercial property.
"We do think that as we go through the second half of this year the commercial property in the UK is going to start moving upwards. So that is our message today on that front, it's (time to) get ready to invest," Chief Executive Andrew Moss said.
In the banking sector, Lloyds Banking Group, one of the UK's biggest commercial property lenders following the takeover of HBOS, on Thursday said impairments in its commercial mortgage book had peaked.
On Monday, Anglo-French property investor Hammerson cited stabilising commercial UK prices for slowing a decline in net asset value.
On July 31, Britain's biggest mall owner, Liberty International, raised hopes the worst of the commercial property market maelstrom may be over, as it posted a 40% fall in interim net asset value.
"After a two year period of exceptional turmoil ... we can, with some relief, report to shareholders welcome signs of at least a measure of stability, if not yet recovery, in property and economic market conditions," CEO David Fischel said.

Looking for commercial property agents, find lettings and investment property in the UK? Visit http://www.ukbusinessproperty.co.uk
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