Why Obama's plan will not work
I already discussed economist Paul Krugman's statement that Obama's plan leaves 15,000,000 Americans lacking affordable medical care. Krugman is too upbeat. My research is that Obama's plan leaves most Americans uninsured in the end. And here is why :
Obama mixes this with 2 fascinating twists. Second is that insurers must cover established conditions. The final mandate in Obama's plan is a remit that health insurers aren't allowed to drop folks from their rolls at renewal time.
As healthy people back out of paying for medical care, that means the remaining folks finish up paying more, which causes more folks to drop out, which causes health care insurance to become more expensive, and then yet more people drop out. The final result is that only sick folk end up paying for health care -- which isn't a usable choice, because the small share of sick folks simply can't pay for current levels of medical care. 15% of the state's GDP is tied up in health care today, and sick folks don't generate 15% of the state's GDP. There just ain't no'there' there.
briefly without a remit that healthy people subsidize the care of sick folks, there is no universal health care, just a large amount of dead sick folks. The medical insurance industry is already in a death spiral, merely a slow one because currently they can kick the sickest folk off of their rolls. Now, Obama adds a slick small move to his medicare plan -- a'reinsurer pool' sponsored by the govt. that takes the sickest of the sick off of the health care insurance company's rolls -- but I don't know that this would end the death spiral that otherwise results from mandating that insurers accept all comers, but not mandating that everyone buy insurance. When I work the numbers, Obama's plan simply doesn't work -- the health care insurance death spiral gets even worse.
Without mandates, we finish up with dead folks. Krugman is an optimist. I'm not. I see a heap more, if Obama's plan were passed as-is -- which, naturally, it won't be, since as a plan this would have such horrific effects that when the CBO works the numbers the entire Congress would flinch in horror and send it to the shredder.
- http://obama-healthcare-issues.blogspot.com/
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