FIRST IMPRESSION.
When you wait 4 weeks for your delivery and finally got your box in your hands, you open this beautifully packed and printed material. Very nice!
10 minutes later you register your membership on Triad website, and discover, that you have WAITED FOUR WEEKS IN VAIN... BEYOND REASON.... Because the book and the videos on the 6 CD-s are all fastly downloadable from the members area.
WHY WAIT WEEKS?
1. I think this "delivery period" is only to use these weeks for selling EVEN MORE "LIMITED" COPIES. How many copies did they sell? I don't know, but definetely more than 1200... because when I paid for it, the counter on their website showed the same number before and after my purchase... So, they might have sold 3000? 6000? I don't know.
2. You now have a box, that you MUST deliver back to the USA if you want to get a refund. Of course, this is YOUR cost. Maybe they think that this amount (100 pounds for me to post it back...) will refrain the undecided people to post it back to them.
Additionally - I offered them to only cancel my membership and I keep the box, and they give only the $1997 minus the box producing fee (maybe $50 or so). They REFUSED this offer. Can I ask - WHY?
BUT WHY I WANT REFUND?
1. I am also a programmer. My first impression was about the pack that it was programmed neglectfully, fastly and sloppy. The indicators settings, the initializing, the behaviour all tell me this.
2. The whole portfolio (TrendFinder strategy, Countertrend or ranging market strategy called Squishsquash, and the third is the Breakout strategy) are all could have been programmed into one Expert Advisor (a.k.a. trading robot or a.k.a. handsfree automatic trading program). BUT, the Triad forces and repeats that this is a manual system.
Can I ask, why is it a manual system? It is fully driven by indicator's signals. The only manual part is to enter the orders... so missing part is the automatic order-management application.
Why did they not programmed that into an Expert Advisor? My personal opinion is that it would have been too transparent to see for anybody, that the results are poor... and for an Expert Advisor can easily be bactested and forward tested. They wanted to avoid this... because this portfolio fails in BOTH.
I did this management software, so believe me... but if you want to see it for yourself, do the followings on your computer :
3. Go in any Metatrader platform. In Tools-options-charts menu, set both "Max Bars" values to the maximum, or 99999999999. That will give you the most available data that is possible. Second step, go in History Center (press F2), and download any of the currencies M1 data (to get the best "resolution", the most realistic). After downloading, the third step is to create an empty Expert Advisor. This is needed for making the Strategy Tester working with your realistic data. This is like a fast but live-like simulation. Then, do switch the Visual Mode on and start to test your empty expert advisor!
If you have done what I explained, you now see that the selected chart is beginning to forming, as it happened in the past. Now you right click and apply the Triad indicators. You can now set the speed of candle forming with the visual slide on the backtester.
(90% realism is beause this is not a tick data. But it gives totally the same result because the Triad indicators show up at the first open tick of a new candle).
Having done all this, you will see... :
4. The backtest result is HORRIBLE. Do any currency pair, any year.... The ONLY profitable time is from 2008 to now.
Can it adapt to market conditions? NO. If it could, then all the years should have been at least a bit of positive. But all the years were terribly negative, not just one strategy, but ALL THREE strategies independently and together as well - at the same time !!!
My revelation is, that this is a CURVE FITTED strategy. IT DOES NOT ADAPT to new market conditions. All the background indicators have FIXED settings... Please check what I am talking about... Even the manual admits this fact when talking about the background indicators.
5. Forward testing... It is about breaking even. But in this short period it does NOT mean anything. It is clear to anyone, that there are a lot of small losses and stopouts even from good trends on Trendfinder. The SquishSquash did okay, but only in today's market. As I explained, it did loose a lot in each year of the past, except of 2008.
The Breakout strategy gets a lot of stopping out as well. If you put your indicator on, it looks like a very profitable strategy, but only these days and not in live conditions... (see my point 4.). But after seeing my backtest results and understanding that this portflio does NOT adapt to the market, I do not want to spend more of my time with it.
What it does, it tries to hedge positions, for example a trendfinder trade against a squishsquash. If there is a trending market, then squishsquash will loose 150 pips, so your trendfinder must recover it, and vica versa.
6. I also don't like that in the written manual, there are things that are not clear. For example, once you read that you put a 30 pips trailing stop, other time you read that stop is fixed 30 pips when enter.
I only tested the "swing trade style", and not tested the "daytrade style".
After all my experiences above, I did not want to spend my time with testing the daytrade use of this strategy. I am quite sure, that I would be able to squeeze out some pips... but in the long run, I very doubt it. Maybe it is enough to earn the $2000 back, maybe not. I will not put this onto my live account, because the result is more than questionable. There is a high chance of seeing the same results like at the daily charts, because it was developed by the same attitude with the same indicators in the same style.
Everyone can develop a strategy afterwards... A strategy that worked in the past on a particular 1 year period. But this does not mean that this curve fitted strategy worked earlier, or will work later on that chart. Regarding the Triad Trading strategies, this is the case.
So if you are a Triad member, please pray a lot to the God of Markets to keep the same charasteristic for many years. But I think it won't...
CONCLUSION:
Please do yourself the favour, and don't spend your time and money. The proofs show that Triad does not pick up the actual market charateristic and does not adapt.
REFUND POLICY
"No question asked refunding policy". Yes, they transfered the money back some 9 days after they received the box back.
But this wasn't a proper refund, because they charged on a much worse rate....
Finally I only lost about 300 gbp on this Triad adventure. I do not say they are scammers, because I got most of my money back. But the product they deliver, how they deliver, when they deliver, the answering of emails, the customer service, and most importantly, the product itself all are under the fair expectations, and definetely doesn't worth even $100 to spend on this. This strategy and its adaptation is a big fat lie.
