Betting is considered a business by all the casinos, gaming venues and bookies throughout the world. It is one of the purest forms of capitalism known. Every gaming venue takes a percentage of the winnings paid out. This is typically about 10% although it will vary from place to place.
This “fee” is how the venue makes its money. Consequently, it becomes a no risk proposition for them when there is an equal amount bet on each team. The venue pays out 45% of the total amount wagered and keeps 55%. Every venue is most concerned with managing its risk to ensure a “guaranteed” profit. How is this risk managed? Venues provide incentives to the gambling population to bet a certain way when they have not collected a sufficient amount to be punted on one team. This is where the concept of the “spread” comes in, also known as a “start”
Consider the
NRL (National Rugby League). Games are played on a weekly basis. Typically, the “starts” are specified early in the week before the game is played. This is based on the perceived strength of each team to actually win the game combined with the expected amount of money to be bet on each team. This gives rise to the first
betting hint, and it’s converse, which suggests the best time to place a bet::.
Hint #1: Place your bet early in the week on the team you like if you think the initial “start” is TOO MUCH in favour of your team.
Hint #2: Place your bet later in the week on the team you like if you think the initial “start” is NOT in favour of your team.
The first two tips are based on the presumption that a larger amount will be bet on the team that now has a better chance of beating the new “start”, thus turning the odds in your favour. The next couple of hints primarily deal with observations made over several years punting on the weekly NRL games.
Hint #3: Bet against teams whose key player(s) will not be playing in the game for some reason.
Typically, the “start” should already have factored in this information. However, if it is not widely known until right before game time that a player will be out of the game, this can have quite an impact on the betting; especially if large amounts of bets can be made right up until the start of the game.
Hint #4: Don't bet against a team playing in its home ground just because you believe the “start” is too high against them.
You should only bet on an “underdog” when your analysis convinces you that they can legitimately win the game.
Finally, you should be treating the betting like a business proposition as well. Money is involved. Emotions need to be kept in check when choosing which team to bet on. Remember “The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong -but that's the way to bet!”-- DAMON RUNYON
