Tom Brady to Randy Moss for a touchdown or Adrian Peterson breaking one for a 45-yard gain or Larry Fitzgerald gathering the ball in from Kurt Warner for a game-winning score-those are the moments that make your wager payoff. Right? Well, on the surface they are. Where would the Patriots be without Brady and Moss or the Vikings without Peterson of the Cardinals without Fitzgerald and Warner? Good question. But remember between the offensive and defensive squads that take the field, there are a total of 22 players. The backs, quarterback and wideouts total five or six at the most. And they're all on one side of the ball! What about those 16 to 17 other guys? Don't they count? And what about the coach?
The fact is that betting on the NFL is not the same as playing fantasy football, where the ball carriers, catchers and throwers are the be-all and end-all. In the NFL, it all starts with coaching and the schemes those coaches and their assistants create. And then there's the importance of both the defensive unit and offensive line, both of which are often overlooked by novice sports bettors.
Coaching and Scheming
Let's throw out a few names-Tony Dungy, Tom Coughlin and Bill Belichick. What does anyone who has spent any time even eavesdropping on the NFL know about these guys? They've all been to and won the Super Bowl. Additionally, their teams have played for the most part consistent football season-in and season-out.
Here are a few other names-Marty Schottenheimer, Herm Edwards and Jack Del Rio. These coaches all have reputations for making weak and inconsistent decisions and fielding teams that never quite reach their potential. Two of these guys are presently not coaching, although both had been NFL helmsmen for years and although Del Rio does have a head-coaching job, he is considered to be one of the worst in the NFL.
In professional football, more than in baseball, basketball or hockey, the head coach must create extensive and complex game plans and make detailed game-time decisions all of which can make or break a team. A NFL coach can have all the talent in the world on his roster, but if he can't manage and control all of that talent, they'll simply be a bunch of confused underachievers. Before betting on a NFL team consider the coach.
The Defensive Unit
You ever notice that some of the top NFL Draft picks are linemen, line backers and secondary guys (often in that order)? The reason being that a top defensive player can turn a squad around and turn an opposing offenses' game day into a nightmare. Think of it this way-so what if a team can score 30 points, if they can't stop their opponents from crossing the goal line six times, they're going to lose. This was especially clear in the NFL's 2008 post-season when on the way to the Super Bowl both the Pittsburgh and Arizona defenses wreaked havoc on their various opponents. These are the guys who put pressure on great quarterbacks, stuff hardnosed runners and keep speedy receivers off balance. Never underestimate their worth.
Offensive Line
Known as the guys in the trenches, these players never get to touch the ball unless a mistake has been made. They are charged with two extremely important duties-protecting the quarterback, giving him enough time to throw, and opening up holes for the running back so he can find some daylight and gain some yards.
One of the things to watch for as the NFL seasonprogresses is the effectiveness of this group. A club with a top quarterback and fine running back may at first perform well despite a poor O-line. But poor performance by the offensive guys upfront has a cumulative effect that can result in signal callers and runners wearing and breaking down as the season reaches its midpoint.
When the Patriots and Giants met in the Super Bowl a few years back that game was lost due to three important factors. First, the Giants' head coach Tom Coughlin had devised various defensive schemes designed to keep the New England offensive line guessing and on their heels. His plan worked. Second, and partly as a result of Coughlin's planning, the New York D-line and linebackers outmatched the Pats' frontline, putting pressure on Brady and stuffing the run. Third, the Giants' offensive line protected Eli Manning well enough so he was not forced into making bad decisions, something that had plagued him for years when he was under pressure.
The result was that the New York Giants pulled a major upset over the New England Patriots. It was primarily due to coaching, scheming, the D-Unit and the O-line. When betting on the NFL never underestimate the worth of these essential strategic elements. It will pay off in the end.
