The Generation IV reactors are still on the drawing boards. Six design selections were made in early 2005. The group is still growing. As we were going to press, the European Atomic Energy Community (EURATOM) formally joined the other ten members of GIF – short for Generation IV International Forum. EURATOM joined the current members: Argentina, Brazil, Canada, France, Japan, South Africa, Switzerland, United Kingdom and the United States. Russia is not part of GIF, but one of their reactor designs, a sodium-cooled fast reactor, is one of the six designs found in this section. India is not participating and is probably going to develop a way to use its abundant thorium reserves as a nuclear fuel. Also not a GIF member, China appears focused on the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor, which has some similarities to one of the six designs.
These will be the "next frontier" of nuclear reactors, which may help solve more than just a growing and grave electricity problem. All are operated at higher temperatures than today's reactors. Four of the six reactor designs will also produce hydrogen. These designs also address the issues of recycling and waste disposal. Because of the "recycling" feature is questionable, at this point in time, we believe rising uranium prices and depleted inventories of uranium might make this feasible. Subsequently, there is likely to be a peak point during the course of this super bull market in uranium, when world governments collectively agree the once-through use of uranium is preposterous. At the time when uranium fuel is again reprocessed in the United States, utilizing the new nuclear reactor technologies, this will be the time when the current bull market would likely end. Our best guess is in the years approaching 2030.
REVIEWING THE NEXT GENERATION
More than 100 top scientists and engineers from more than a dozen countries reviewed about 100 different nuclear energy design concepts to identify which would be the most effective nuclear reactor designs for deployment after 2030. Key issues such as safety, reprocessing and proliferation concerns, minimizing nuclear waste, hydrogen production and additional uses from nuclear energy were discussed and evaluated.
The Generation IV Forum was spearheaded by the U.S. Department of Energy and gained traction since its inception. There is reason for concern. The United States and France account for about 45 percent of the world's nuclear power capacity. Five countries, when you include Japan, Germany and Russia, comprise about two-thirds of the world's nuclear energy capacity. The top ten countries, using nuclear energy, make up more than 80 percent of the world's nuclear energy capacity. About 80 percent of the world's countries have no civilian nuclear energy program. Clearly, there is plenty of room for growth in nuclear energy across the world.
Generation IV reactors and other advanced reactor designs, such as the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor, may make it possible for the rapid public acceptance of nuclear energy. Safety and cost issues are being addressed.
