The Chinese plan a 200 megawatt production plant by 2007 and have firm plants for thirty PBMR plants by 2020, providing 6 gigawatts. Reports have also been made that China hopes to deploy up to 300 gigawatts of reactors by 2050. By comparison, the world's entire nuclear energy capacity in 2002 was about 363 gigawatts. The world's two largest civilian nuclear programs, the United States and France, amounted to about 160 gigawatts. The Pebble Bed Modular Reactor is another reason why many analysts are underestimating the size and duration of the great uranium bull market.
The PBMR has attractive safety features. The coolant has no transition phases. The helium coolant remains as a gas, which is inert and fireproof. Few neutrons are absorbed so the coolant remains less radioactive. The moderator is solid carbon, does not act as a coolant and does not have transitions as does light water in a conventional reactor. In an actual test, a pebble bed reactor had all of its supporting machinery fail. The reactor did not crack, melt, explode or discharge hazardous wastes. The reactor kicked into idle. The continuous refueling prevents excess reactivity in the core, and allows for the ongoing inspection of the fuel elements.
The major roadblock thrown up by PBMR critics refers to a small accident in 1986 in Germany, which came about when reactor operators attempted to dislodge a jammed pebble in a feeder tube. The accident released small amounts of radiation in the surrounding area. Consequently, the West German government shut down the research program.
A major advantage of the PBMR is they are small and relatively cost-effective for mass manufacturer. Industry insiders told me the Chinese hope to mass market these, at some future time, for export around the world. The South Africans already plan to do so after building their first PBMR at Koeberg, South Africa (on the Atlantic coast about 18 miles from Cape Town). France may have its first PBMR by 2020. Others may have one before then, and many more should have the PBMR afterward.
The PBMR is a small reactor, making it versatile and flexible. It is publicized as producing 110 MW, which is about 7 to 10 percent of the power of many of the Generation 3 reactors. The PBMR materials compare the 33 percent thermal efficiency of the light water reactors against the PBMR target of 40 percent in the basic design. They hope to improve it toward 50 percent efficiency. With an ease and speed to construct, a lower cost to build and operate, safe and reliable and versatile, the PBMR might become the ideal candidate for many undeveloped countries across the world. Of the 80 percent of the world's countries, which do not now have nuclear energy in their mix, the PBMR may become the entry-level reactor from which to build their civilian nuclear program.
