Introduction:
Don't show up for your fantasy football draft unprepared. Dr. Stat brings you the second part in a series of free columns previewing the 2008 Fantasy Football Season. Step into my office (no appointment necessary), sit down, relax and prepare yourself for your upcoming fantasy draft.


Whether you're a casual player who plays in a league or two just for fun, or a hardcore player who lives to dominate in multiple leagues, we all love the excitement and competition that fantasy football provides. However, preparation is vital. Running backs make or break the success of your fantasy football team. Everyone has their own thoughts on who will dominate, who will flop and who will breakout this season. Here I rank my top 20 running backs, name some players I'm avoiding and alert you of sleepers, rookies and a list of the handcuffs you'll want to be wearing this season.

Key= G (games)- Rushing Yards, Rushing Touchdowns; Receiving Yards, Receiving Touchdowns

1) Ladanian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers

In my opinion, LT is the number one overall pick this season. I love AP and his potential, but give me proven numbers almost any day. LT is reliable, only missing one game in seven seasons. He's consistent, rushing for an average of 1,521 yards and 16 touchdowns and catching an average of 65 balls for 482 yards each season. He had six 100-yard games last season, including two of 175+. He found the end zone in 12 of his 16 games (AP only found it in half of his 14 games). He's highly elusive and has breakaway speed, making him the most dangerous weapon to take the field in the entire NFL.

2007 Stats: 16 G- 1,474 YDS, 15 TD; 475 YDS, 3 TD

2008 Fantasy Prognosis: 16 G- 1,570 YDS, 17 TD; 503 YDS, 2 TD

2) Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings

The "AP or LT?" is the biggest debate in fantasy football this season, but it's a fairly easy decision for me.
Peterson's upside is outrageous, but he has to prove he is durable. Can he stay healthy and play all 16 games? He suffered injuries while in college and in his rookie season. Will he wear down near the end of the season, when owners need him the most come playoff time? In his final four games last season, he rushed 54 times for 144 yards and two TDs. The majority of his 1,341 rushing yards, good for second in the NFL, came in four 100+ yard games and two 200+ yard games. I'd rather have the proven durability and consistency of LT. Still, if you have the number two pick and land Peterson, he's a pretty sweet consolation prize. I expect he'll rush for more yards than LT, but cross the goal line a few less times. Just be sure to draft Chester Taylor later as well. Then you'll have a fantasy beast and a solid back-up plan.

2007 Stats: 14 G- 1,341 YDS, 12 TD; 268 YDS 1 TD

2008 Fantasy Prognosis: 16 G- 1,691 YDS, 15 TD; 415 YDS, 2 TD

3) Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles

Westbrook dominated across the board last season and was the only non-QB in the NFL to rack up 2,000 or more combined yards. He finishing third in the league in rushing and set an Eagles team record for receptions, with 90. He had six 100+ yard rushing games eight games where he caught eight or more passes. He also finished strong, tallying 4.4+ YPC over each of the last five games of the season. He's always a breakaway threat, as he had a run of over 20 yards in eight different games. As long as he can stay healthy and plays 15 games for the third straight year, Westbrook will give your fantasy team a great chance to win every single week.

2007 Stats: 15 G- 1,333 YDS, 7 TD; 771 YDS, 5 TD

2008 Fantasy Prognosis: 15 G- 1,276 YDS, 10 TD; 719 YDS, 4 TD

4) Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts

In 15 games last season, Addai's averaged 17.4 rushing attempts, 71.5 rushing yards and .67 rushing TDs. He also caught 41 passes for 364 yards and three scores. He scored a touchdown in ten separate games, including three of them twice. Expect his third year in the league to be another strong one, as he'll get plenty of goal-line carries and plays in a potent offense that's driven by Peyton Manning.

2007 Stats: 15 G- 1,072 YDS, 12 TD; 364 YDS, 3 TD

2008 Fantasy Prognosis: 16 G- 1,168 YDS, 14 TD; 330 YDS, 2 TD

5) Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers

How will having Mike Martz as his new OC affect Gore? In the past two seasons, Martz's offense in Detroit finished 32nd and 31st in the league in rushing, but that doesn't necessarily bode badly for Gore. He will carry the ball less and catch the ball more. He's averaged just six touchdowns per season, but it's worth noting that his 4.8 career YPC average after his first three seasons is better than Ladanian Tomlinson's was. Look for Gore to catch a career-high number of passes this season, but hopefully he'll also inspire the pass-friendly Martz to retool his offensive scheme slightly and run the ball more. Martz says that Gore reminds him of Marshall Faulk, so we trust that he'll take advantage of Gore's ability as a dual threat, which could (and I emphasize could) translate into Gore's best season yet.

2007 Stats: 15 G- 1,102 YDS, 5 TD; 436 YDS, 1 TD

2008 Fantasy Prognosis: 16 G- 1,210 YDS, 8 TD; 602 YDS, 3 TD

6) Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams

He's ranked as high as third on other draft boards, so call me a skeptic. There's so much to love about Jackson, but comes with a few causes for concern. One, there is the holdout. After three weeks, little progress has been made. Two, he's returning from both groin and back injuries that caused him to miss four full games last season. Now I believe he's healthy and will eventually sign and play in week one, but I'd rather err on the side of caution here. His overall numbers will be somewhere between his awesome 2006 and his admirable, but disappointing 2007. He's a powerful runner and a threat to catch at least 60 balls this season.

2007 Stats: 12 G- 1,002 YDS, 5 TD; 271 YDS, 1 TD

2008 Fantasy Prognosis: 13 G- 1,205 YDS, 8 TD; 542 YDS, 2 TD

7) Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins

If anyone was happy to see Jim Zorn come to Washington, it was Portis. His 325 rushes led the NFL last season and he caught a career-high 47 passes. We should see even more of the same from Portis in Zorn's West Coast style of play, especially if his offensive line, which was decimated last year, proves to be strong and healthy. We always question his health, but he did play all 16 games last season. He's scored double-digit touchdowns in four of his five pro seasons in which he played at least 13 games. He'll show up in some ridiculous outfits throughout the season, but you still can entrust your fantasy team's success to him.

2007 Stats: 16 G- 1,262 YDS, 11 TD; 389 YDS, 0 TD

2008 Fantasy Prognosis: 15 G- 1,119 YDS, 9 TD; 350 YDS, 1 TD

8) Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys

Plenty of people are hopping on the "Marion the Barbarian" train this season, but I'm not overpaying for my ticket to ride. The departure of Julius Jones doesn't mean that Barber will be the full-time running back. Dallas loves the ability of rookie Felix Jones, so expect he and Barber to split carries. Barber will see more of the goal-line carries though, and those are the ones that really count in fantasy.

2007 Stats: 16 G- 975 YDS, 10 TD; 282 YDS, 2 TD

2008 Fantasy Prognosis: 16 G- 1,055 YDS, 13 TD; 160 YDS, 1 TD

9) Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills

He might resemble a cross between Oprah and Star Jones, but Lynch is a beast. AP got all the attention last year, but Lynch had an excellent rookie season. In 13 games, Lynch never received fewer than 18 carries and averaged almost 86 yards per game. The Bills love to (and have to) run the football and Lynch will be more involved in the short passing game as well.

2007 Stats: 13 G- 1,115 YDS, 7 TD; 184 YDS, 0 TD

2008 Fantasy Prognosis: 15 G- 1,240 YDS, 10 TD; 361 YDS, 1 TD

10) Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs

Johnson is another player ranked higher on some draft boards, but if players came with flashing neon signs, Johnson's would read "Proceed With Caution." He was a top pick last year on the wake of back-to-back 1,700+ yard campaigns, then things went downhill faster than Warren Sapp on a tricycle. His average YPC declined from 5.2 in 2005, to 4.3 in 2006, to 3.5 in 2007. In eight games last season, he rushed for an average of 69.9 YPG. LJ's offensive line is awful, his quarterbacks don't intimidate defenses at all and he's returning from a broken foot. If there's a safer option of the same value available when it's your pick, let someone else in your league absorb the risk that accompanies drafting him.

2007 Stats: 8 G- 559 YDS, 3 TD; 186 YDS, 1 TD

2008 Fantasy Prognosis: 13 G- 1,216 YDS, 9 TD; 271 YDS, 1 TD

11) Jamal Lewis, Cleveland Browns

Lewis proved all the doubters wrong last season. Many figured his career was headed downhill fast, but he played 14 games and averaged 4.4 YPC, his best since 2004. Expect the same production this season, thanks to a powerful Browns offensive line and an explosive passing game.

2007 Stats: 15 G- 1,304 YDS, 9 TD; 248 YDS, 2 TD

2008 Fantasy Prognosis: 14 G- 1,112 YDS, 8 TD; 166YDS, 0 TD

12) Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers

He was outstanding last season, but I've got my share of doubts about Grant this season. The departure of Favre will affect Grant in a noticeable way, as opposing defenses will focus on him and force Aaron Rodgers to beat them. Mostly everything about the Packer's season hinges on Rodgers. Was Grant's playoff game against the Giants last season (29 yards on 13 carries) a fluke, or an ominous sign of things to come? Am I worried Grant will flop? No. Am I asking you to be wary? Absolutely.

2007 Stats: 15 G- 956 YDS, 8 TD; 145 YDS, 0 TD

2008 Fantasy Prognosis: 16 G- 1,142 YDS, 8 TD; 125 YDS, 1 TD

13) Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars

All signs point to an outstanding season from MJD. The Jaguars offense revolves around running the football, and Jones-Drew is the engine that drives it. Fred Taylor will still see action, but it will be Jones-Drew who again takes the field on third downs. He's a dual threat as both a tough runner and a reliable receiver. Best of all, he's only 23 years old.

2007 Stats: 15 G- 768 YDS, 9 TD; 407 YDS, 0 TD

2008 Fantasy Prognosis: 15 G- 866 YDS, 11 TD; 440 YDS, 0 TD


14) Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants

Few backs in the league are as hard to bring down as Jacobs. At 6'4", 264 pounds, Jacobs rumbles down the field like a mini-bulldozer. When he plays, that is. Injuries limited him to nine games last season, and he ran for 100+ yards in five of them. Even if he does stay healthy, he'll lose carries to Ahmad Bradshaw and Derrick Ward. He should get the majority of the goal-line carries though.

2007 Stats: 11 G- 1,009 YDS, 4 TD; 174 YDS, 2 TD

2008 Fantasy Prognosis: 10 G- 952 YDS, 8 TD; 150 YDS, 0 TD

15) Michael Turner

Based on his talent and the hype that he's receiving with his first shot at being a number one back, Turner might be higher on my list if he had more than 228 carries in 59 games. There's no doubting his explosiveness and his 5.5 career YPC, but we've never seen him have to be durable. Turner is a guy I love this season, but he's a high risk/high reward player.

2007 Stats: 16 G- 316 YDS, 1 TD; 16 YDS 0 TD

2008 Fantasy Prognosis: 16 G- 1,009 YDS, 7 TD; 172 YDS, 0 TD

16) Willie Parker, Pittsburgh Steelers

"Fast Willie" is still fast and consistent (eight 100+ yard games last season), but the certainty ends there. His returning from broken fibula doesn't concern me. What grabs my attention is the mere two rushing TDs he had last year (after 16 in 2006), the fact the Steelers throw the ball more (both overall and in the red zone) and the powerful rookie Rashard Mendenhall. Parker will still rack up 1,000 yards rushing, thanks to his patented breakaway runs, his don't be surprised to see value continue to fall.

2007 Stats: 15 G- 1,316 YDS, 2 TD; 164 YDS, 0 TD

2008 Fantasy Prognosis: 15 G- 1,113 YDS, 5 TD; 127 YDS, 0 TD

17) Willis McGahee, Baltimore Ravens

His recent surgery to clean up his knee worries me a little. The Ravens say he'll be ready to go in week one, but fantasy owners have a right to be concerned. McGahee had the eighth most rushing yards in the league last season and caught 43 balls, a career high. Rookie Ray Rice is turning heads in the preseason and opposing defenses will stack against the run, as Baltimore's passing game isn't exactly intimidating. All this combined has McGahee moving down the rankings.

2007 Stats: 15 G- 1,207 YDS, 7 TD; 231 YDS, 1 TD

2008 Fantasy Prognosis: 14 G- 1,023 YDS, 6 TD; 170 YDS, 0 TD

18) Lawrence Maroney, New England Patriots

There's no denying that Maroney has talent, but playing in the league's best offense is his curse, as 27 other RBs had more rushing attempts per game last season. He has Sammy Morris to deal with and has missed games in both of his first two seasons, due to multiple injuries. He didn't even score until week 11 last year. Don't let the uniform he wears fool you; there are more reliable options this season.

2007 Stats: 13 G- 835 YDS, 6 TD; 116 YDS, 0 TD

2008 Fantasy Prognosis: 14 G- 877 YDS, 7 TD, 198 YDS, 0 TD

19) Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins

Outside of Tedd Ginn, Jr., Brown projects to be only Dolphins player who will have any real fantasy relevance in 2008 (no, I'm not drafting Chad Pennington). He's coming off a torn ACL and has a slight thumb injury, but Brown is a 1,000 yard back when he's healthy. Just in case, you'll want to protect yourself by (I can't believe I'm saying this) drafting Ricky Williams late.

2007 Stats: 7 G- 602 YDS, 4 TD; 389 YDS, 1 TD

2008 Fantasy Prognosis: 13 G- 1,044 YDS, 6 TD; 280 YDS, 0 TD

20) Darren McFadden

Potentially, McFadden has an AP type of ceiling. He's tough, crazy talented and a perfect fit in the Raiders offense. He's looked great in the team's first two preseason games, putting up 5.1 YPC. The team hopes that maturity of quarterback Jamarcus Russell and the signing of Javon Walker will open up the running game even more. McFadden will split carries with Justin Fargas and Michael Bush is expected to see action as well. McFadden's value in keeper leagues is through the roof, but temper your expectations this season.

2007 Stats: N/A

2008 Fantasy Prognosis: 14 G- 906 YDS, 8 TD; 177 YDS, 0 TD

Running Backs I'm Avoiding

Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints: The old "fool me twice" adage has never rung more true than in the case of Reggie Bush. His fell short of our expectations in his rookie season, but we forgave him. When Deuce McAllister went down with an injury early last season, we were excited to see what Bush could do as the main running back on an NFL team. He broke our hearts. Until he learns to run north-to-south instead of the sideways, herky-jerky style that helped him succeed at USC, Bush will never become the NFL player he was hyped to be. He's coming off a knee injury and both Aaron Stecker and Pierre Thomas loom in the shadows. That all adds up to too many questions without enough excuses. I'll pass on Bush this year, thank you.

Rudi Johnson, Cincinatti Bengals: Rudi has a nagging hamstring injury and a Kenny Watson who is chomping at the bit. Rudi will start if (IF) he's healthy, but his best years are behind him. He's worth drafting as reserve player, but if he's one of your two starters, you might as well start waving the white flag.

Julius Jones, Seattle Seahawks: Jones does not quite inspire the same creamy delight that the frozen drink he's named after does. Seattle paid him big money, so he'll be the number one back, but I remain unconvinced. He averaged a career-worst 3.6 YPC last season and T.J. Duckett will likely steal some third down and goal-line carries.

Edgerrin James, Arizona Cardinals: Would the real Edge please stand up? He took the money and bolted from Indianapolis to Arizona, then posted season YPCs of 3.4 and 3.8. Ugh. It's not going to get any better, folks.

Any RB In A Broncos Uniform: Mike Shanahan must hate fantasy football, because he taunts us every season with his obscurity about who is starting and then following a by-committee approach. Grrrr. Travis Henry enjoys having kids and smoking pot more than he does scoring TDs. Selvin Young will probably see the majority of the carries, as rookie Ryan Torain is out at least three months. In short, don't avoid them to the extent that you'd avoid Miami QBs, but there are a lot of better options.

Rookies and Sleepers

Thomas Jones, New York Jets: The first back I'd rank after my top 20, Jones ran for 1,119 yards last season, but found the end zone only once. Favre will open up the Jets passing game, while newly-signed Alan Faneca and sophomore D'Brickashaw Ferguson give Jones a solid offensive line. In short, Jones has no excuses this season.

Earnest Graham, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: He won't score ten TDs again, but he's the number one back on a team that also has Warrick Dunn, Cadillac Williams and Michael Bennett.

Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Pathers: A solid (5'10", 235 pounds) player who will compete with DeAngelo Williams for carries and has the potential to have a season similar to McFadden's.

Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers: A powerful runner who could pass Willie Parker as the team's number one back.

Kevin Smith, Detroit Lions: Detroit's best ground option, but how will new OC Jim Colletto use him?

Matt Forte, Chicago Bears: Is he the running back the Bears thought they had when they drafted Cedric Benson? Only time will tell.

Handcuffs and Deep Sleepers

In fantasy football, it's smart to protect yourself and draft the player who backs up your stud running back
late in the draft. The following is a list (in order of team) of players you should own or players you should know should your star back go down with an injury. Which one of them will emerge from relative obscurity and enter the spotlight, as Ryan Grant did last season?

Arizona Cardinals- Marcel Shipp/J.J. Arrington (Edgerrin James)

Atlanta Falcons- Jerious Norwood (Michael Turner)

Baltimore Ravens- Ray Rice (Willis McGahee)

Buffalo Bills- Fred Jackson (Marshawn Lynch)

Carolina Panthers- DeAngelo Williams (Jonathan Stewart)

Chicago Bears- Adrian Peterson/Garrett Wolfe (Matt Forte)

Cincinnati Bengals- Kenny Watson/Chris Perry (Rudi Johnson)

Cleveland Browns- Jason Wright (Jamal Lewis)

Dallas Cowboys- Felix Jones (Marion Barber)

Denver Broncos- Andre Hall (Selvin Young)

Detroit Lions- Tatum Bell (Kevin Smith)

Green Bay Packers- Brandon Jackson/DeShawn Wynn (Ryan Grant)

Houston Texans- Chris Brown/Darius Walker/Steve Slaton (Ahman Green)

Indianapolis Colts- Mike Hart/Kenton Keith/Dominic Rhodes (Joseph Addai)

Jacksonville Jaguars- Fred Taylor (Maurice Jones-Drew)

Kansas City Chiefs- Kolby Smith/Jamal Charles (Larry Johnson)

Miami Dolphins- Ricky Williams (Ronnie Brown)

Minnesota Vikings- Chester Taylor (Adrian Peterson)

New England Patriots- Sammy Morris (Lawrence Maroney)

New Orleans Saints- Pierre Thomas/Aaron Stecker (Reggie Bush, Duece McAllister)

New York Giants- Ahmad Bradshaw/Derrick Ward (Brandon Jacobs)

New York Jets- Leon Washington (Thomas Jones)

Oakland Raiders- Michael Bush (Justin Fargas/Darren McFadden)

Philadelphia Eagles- Tony Hunt/Correll Buckhalter (Brian Westbrook)

Pittsburgh Steelers- Rashard Mendenhall (Willie Parker)

San Diego Chargers- Darren Sproles/Jacob Hester (Ladanian Tomlinson)

San Francisco 49ers- DeShaun Foster (Frank Gore)

Seattle Seahawks- T.J. Duckett/Maurice Morris (Julius Jones)

St. Louis Rams- Brian Leonard/Antonio Pittman (Steven Jackson)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Warrick Dunn/Cadillac Williams/Michael Bennett (Earnest Graham)

Tennessee Titans- Chris Johnson (LenDale White)

Washington Redskins- Ladell Betts (Clinton Portis)


Thanks for reading! As always, feedback and discussion are encouraged and welcomed. Like I said, everyone has their own opinion, and I'd love to hear yours. Check out my QB Rankings and watch for the rest of my 2008 Fantasy Football Draft Kit, coming throughout the next two weeks at rootzoo.com. Throughout the NFL season, I'll be providing four free columns per week, loaded with advice to help you win your league and dominate your friends. I'll also be hosting a Fantasy Football Chat session, held every Friday at 7PM EST. Be sure to use the RootZoo.com FantasyZone for all your fantasy sports news and advice. Above all, have fun!

About the author:
Dr. Stat is an expert when it comes to fantasy sports and is highly respected at rootzoo.com, a free site to talk sports. If he's not writing, he's probably chatting on their sports message boards.