1. When's a Flu Pandemic not a Flu Pandemic?
"Bird Flu" means one of many different flu viruses mostly attacking birds. Rarely, a bird virus attacks other species, even rarer it attacks humans. Flu Pandemics occur when a new virus adapts itself to humans. So H5N1 is a bird flu virus which could become a pandemic if it adapts to infect humans. It would then stop being a "bird flu" and become a "human flu".
2. Flu Pandemics are not new.
They are unusual but recurrent: i.e. 1918, 40-50 million killed; 1957, 2 million; 1968, 1 million. When a new virus evolves, people infected have no immunity so the flu pandemic spreads faster and more virulently than usual.
3. Another Flu Pandemic may be imminent.
H5N1 first infected humans in 1997 with 18 cases and 6 deaths. Since then over 140 human cases in Asia have been recorded, with about 50% fatalities. H5N1 has caused massive illness in poultry in these areas, the human infections being among people in close contact with domestic birds. H5N1 does not pass from bird to humans very easily and is not very contagious once among humans, but if H5N1 should develop the ability to spread quickly and easily in the human population, then a pandemic would occur.
4. There's nowhere to hide.
When Bird Flu becomes Human Flu its spread globally will be unstoppable. Halting travel and closing borders will slow it down but cannot stop it. The virus could circle the world within three months.
5. And no-one's immune.
Many more people will become ill than usual for seasonal flu epidemics because they will have little immunity to the pandemic virus. Few countries will have the resources to treat the substantial amount of people needing medical care.
6. Not enough medicine to go round.
Vaccines or antiviral drugs will be in very short supply for months after a pandemic outbreak. In developing countries will probably have no vaccines during the pandemic.
7. Many people will die.
If the pandemic is like the 1957 outbreak, we're talking 2-7.4 million worldwide: if H5N1 evolves into a strain like the 1918 one then the death toll will be far higher, according to WHO.
8. Social and economic chaos will follow.
With so many ill or dead the social and economic frame work will be severely disrupted. Workers in government, power and communication, medical and security staff will be equally susceptible to contagion, putting immense strain on essential services. Food supplies could be interrupted. Think! If everyone's sick, who's doing all the work?
9. Who's going to look out for you?
The territory in which you are resident will make available its own contingency plans as a response to a flu pandemic. The World Health Organization has recommended strategies on which countries can base their own plans. However, even if the pandemic follows a predicted course which has been planned for, local circumstance may be very different. Also, with many of the public servants entrusted to implement these plans potentially sick or dead, even a "fail-safe" plan might fail. WHO is monitoring the situation with H5N1 bird flu and has a six phase preparedness plan to augment international and national plans, individual governments and the media should implement and inform their citizens about their own plans.
10. You, that's who!
It is therefore imperative that individual citizens help by familiarizing themselves with the official plan as well as educating themselves so that they can implement their own individual and family preparedness plan. In this way, they can minimize the threat of infection to themselves and relieve pressure on the emergency services, which will be at breaking point. It's a civil-minded act to make yourself as prepared as possible for the onslaught of a global influenza pandemic and one which we should all seriously think about. You owe it to yourself, your family and to your community to be as prepared and as informed as possible.
