Finance Portfolio Research & Analysis for Sept. 15-19, 2008


From our International (excludes the USA) research division and subsequently International strategy analysts, the following financial analysis excerpts are from revisions recently completed on Internationally based investment portfolios:

From SCR Step 1-Analysis: On No. D4 (International) Financial Portfolio Research,
[SPDR (Wgt: MC)] S&P 500 (SPY) vs. [SPDR (Wgt: MC)] S&P World ex-U.S. (GWL):
(1) Observation of the Relative Strength: Results in the relative strength analysis of S&P 500 (SPY) versus S&P World ex-U.S. (GWL) indicate that SPY is outperforming GWL on a relative basis.
(2) Observation of the Regression: Comparison of the linear regression to the time-series that has a 3-period forward shift finds the following formation: The price is below the linear regression, and the linear regression is below the time-series. Since the linear regression provides the best fit to the price path, this has near term negative implications for SPY.
(3) Observation of the Price Performance: S&P 500 (SPY) shows a shift from a fairly neutral price path to a negative on (downward slope) on mixed indicators.
[Reference Charts: D4-1 (relative strength); AD4A-1a (regression); AD4B-1b (price)]
From SCR Step 2-Implication & Strategy: On No. D4 (International) Observations
(1) Possible Implication: The summary of the stated observations for SPY is Negative, and has near term Bearish implications. While some of the indicators are quite strong, we have others that are showing accumulation even as SPY sells off.

Additional considerations:
First, for most investors, a diversified investment portfolio approach combining stocks, bonds, money market securities, etc., is optimal. While financial diversification cannot protect against a loss from a declining market, it can reduce the volatility of the overall portfolio.

Second, with the ongoing shift of pension responsibilities from employer to employee, personal investment success will need to supplement most benefit packages. Thus, a goal of successful investing in a variety of assets becomes crucial in providing a comfortable retirement for yourself and your spouse. In consideration of that goal, studying the information available on this site, which has been kind enough to host our research in this article, will help. At www.StrategicCapitalResearch.com, we provide additional finance educational materials to what you find here in both investment books and videos. Between the two sites, you should be able to find enough information to get started toward achieving your pension investment goals.

Third, to the above analysis excerpt, the usual disclaimers apply. Since all Strategic Capital Research publications provide research that is conducted using historical data, a reminder needs to be made that the analysis of past market reactions cannot predict future market actions. In particular, no amount of historical data can predict the sudden changes that occasionally occur in financial markets. Finally, the reference chart numbers refer to both the portfolios and their completed auxiliary analyses that are located at www.strategiccapitalresearch.com/research.html.