BUY LOW
Plaxico Burress, New York Giants
Beyond the fact that the Giants have a bye this week, the team has also suspended Burress for Week 5 for insubordination. Now is the prime time to trade for one of the league's elite wide receivers, and give up less than you normally would at the same time. He's scored once in three games, but averaged 86.3 receiving YPG, so you know moer of those touchdowns are coming. Try offering a package deal for Plax (for example, include an Eddie Royal or an Anthony Gonzalez-type player if you sense Plax's owner is panicky). You never know who you might get to bite.
Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars
MJD had many owners concerned after the first two weeks (12 carries for 30 yards), but I encouraged starting him against the Colts. He responded with 19 carries for 107 yards and his second touchdown of the season. Jacksonville obviously relies heavily on the running game and Jones-Drew does split carries with Fred Taylor, but he's still their best offensive weapon. The owner of MJD in your league may be looking to part ways with him, based on his 45.7 YPG average and his Week 5 matchup against the Steelers and his Week 7 bye. Now is the time to buy low, as five of his next six games are against defenses such as Houston, Denver, Cleveland, Cincinnati and Detroit. Of those five teams, only Denver currently ranks above the bottom eight against the run. In other words, MJD is just warming up.
Chris Cooley, Washington Redskins
Captain Chaos has always been a slow starter. Last year, he had six catches after three games. In 2006, he had three after his first two games and five after his first two games of 2005. In all three of those seasons, he finished with 57+ catches, 730+ yards and six or more touchdowns. After one catch in Week 1, we were concerned that Jim Zorn might not utilize him like we had hoped. Then he caught a combined 12 passes for 144 yards over the next two weeks. He's averaging just over 50 YPG and hasn't found the end zone yet, so now is the time to buy low on Cooley while you still can. The Redskins offense has played much better in the last six quarters than they did the first six of the season and Jason Campbell is looking Cooley's way on a regular basis. Those red zone targets are coming.
SELL HIGH
Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins
If there was ever a time to sell a player high, it's Ronnie Brown on the wake of a five-touchdown game. Games like that are both unpredictable and more rare than an honest Drew Rosenhaus quote. I've heard a lot more of "Why did I bench him?" than I have "I'm glad I played him!" this week. Now, everyone will start playing him, and the odds of him repeating that performance are pretty slim. While Brown started and ran for 113 yards on 17 carries, it's not like Ricky Williams just stood on the sidelines and applauded Brown's monster day. He also rushed 16 times for 98 yards. Brown cemented his role as the starter, but he and Williams will continue to split carries. I'm in no way saying that Brown will be a bust for the remainder of the season, but I can practically guarantee that his stock won't be any higher than it is this week.
Chris Chambers, San Diego Chargers
Yes, Chambers is tied for the league lead in TD catches, with four. He had exactly four all of last season. While he obviously has a capable quarterback, hear me out. One, he only has six total catches in three games, so it's not like he's consistently been a Rivers' target. Two, he might be tied for first in TDs, but he's 32nd in receiving yards. Three, San Diego's defense is bound to play better, meaning the Chargers will be involved in fewer shootouts, meaning they'll stop averaging over 36 points per game, meaning they'll throw the ball less, meaning Chambers will see fewer targets than he already does. Two of his touchdowns came on long passes, one for 44 yards and one for 27 yards. If he had not been incredibly wide open due to blown coverage on Monday night, he'd have completely blanked. A healthy combo of Tomlinson/Sproles and sharing targets with Gates and Jackson means he'll finish with a nice overall season, but he's not going to keep up this touchdown rate.
Felix Jones, Dallas Cowboys
To say the rookie from Arkansas has been impressive is an understatement. Don't get me wrong; I love what I've seen from Jones so far. The thing is, he's not the featured back on his team and all three of his touchdowns came in irregular fashion. Stop and think about his three touchdowns: one came when Marion Barber left the game with a rib injury, one came on a 98-yard kickoff return and one came on a long 60-yard run. There's no denying his explosiveness and the Cowboys should look to get him more touches, but he'll always be playing in the shadow of Marion Barber, who is an absolute beast. He's averaged just six carries per game, which isn't going to get it done for your fantasy team in the long run.
I'M NOT GIVING UP ON
Randy Moss, New England Patriots
Here we go again with the reports that Moss is sulking on the sidelines, retreating into his little selfish, pouting shell and being a bad teammate. I won't be so quick to judge. After scoring 23 times last season, who wouldn't be upset that Tom Brady has been replaced by Matt Cassel and you only have 163 yards and one touchdown after three games? Moss is an athletic, talented receiver and needs to adjust to being involved in the short passing game, instead of going deep much of the time. Obviously, he's not going to repeat last year's numbers, but don't hitting the panic button. New England has a bye this week, then the plays San Francisco, San Diego, Denver, St. Louis and Indianapolis in their next five games. Three of those teams (SD, StL, Den) are currently the three worst teams in the league when it comes to defending the pass. I'm giving Moss a little more time to build his chemistry with Cassel and get back to catching six balls and a touchdown on a regular basis.
CLOSING THOUGHTS
I haven't lost all faith in Chad Johnson, as I'm going to give him one more week. The Bengals offense looked much better in Week 3 and the Giants focused on covering Ocho Cinco, while T.J. Houshmanzadeh had a huge game. Before I go trading Johnson, I want to see how upcoming teams plan for the two receivers. Will they let Housh roam free like the Giants did on Sunday or try to cover both? If Johnson doesn't start receiving regular targets over the next week or two, consider us to be broken up. 29.3 YPG from a guy who has put up six straight phenomenal seasons just breaks my heart. Johnson claims he's about to break out big time, and his track record of being good to his word speaks for itself.
In one week, Kevin Smith has gone from a promising rookie and a worthy starter to a risky start in a two-back system. After his 12 carries for 16 yards against Chicago, Earnest Graham gets to face Green Bay, Carolina and Seattle. My faith in him has waned, but remember that Brian Griese threw 67 times last week. Speaking of Griese, he's 8th in the NFL now in attempts, despite only playing two games. He has attempted more passes than Romo, Anderson and even Favre. Even so, I'd avoid starting him against the Packers this week.
One guy I'm watching carefully is Thomas Jones. After a strong Week 1, Jones has seen his number of carries, his average and his yardage decline in each game since. He has faced tougher defenses and has some much easier matchups down the road. His red zone carries have been limited so far, in case you didn't notice how often the Jets passed the ball on Monday night. Even inside the five yard line, Favre was looking to throw. Jones is on pace to finish 2008 with 50 fewer carries than 2007. He finished fifth last season, but that was when the man under center was not #4. Jones will likely finish with another 1,100 yard season, but he's only scored in 31% of his career games and has averaged 3.9 YPC in those games.
About the author:
Dr. Stat is a resident writer at rootzoo.com, where he originally published this article. He spends much time giving fantasy football advice on rootzoo's free sports chat. He also helps to contribute to rootzoo's fantasy football news.


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