One fan, Sprott Asset Management Market Strategist Kevin Bambrough, emailed us his thoughts about the company's proposed acquisitions, "We view the transactions very positively and feel that it's further evidence that we've moved from the early exploration phase of this uranium bull market to a consolidation phase that will see a revaluation and separation between those that have large prospective resources and those that don't."
Did SXR achieve this consolidation at the top point of this current bull market? After all, Merrill Lynch's Vicky Binns announced in a July 12th report that uranium prices would average $43/pound this year, about $3/pound less than the current spot rate. And uranium would fall to $35/pound by 2011. "No, I think we are in a long-term bull run," Froneman rebutted. "We are not paying a market-related price. We all know that the market has taken a very significant correction. I can honestly say that I believe we bought good value." Froneman contended if the Sweetwater mill were vended into a liquid company in the U.S., it would be given a market cap of between $400 and $500 million. "I'm very happy with the transactions we've been able to secure," he explained.
"I believe the industry has to be consolidated," Froneman said. "We have a duty to provide uranium for clean energy. The way that is going to happen is we are going to have to do the right business things. We should be looking at synergies. We would like to be part of other opportunities." Again, he drops hints at more acquisitions, another merger or two.
But all of this deal-making comes with a hefty price tag. Together, we calculated the final cost for SXR Uranium One to bring its newly acquired U.S. assets into operation. We asked: Are you looking at about US$500 million for everything? Froneman responded, "Yes, all in. But, I want you to be sure to mention my qualification. Just based on preliminary information, we only have sufficient information, at this stage, for Sweetwater."
Asked one Toronto brokerage firm analyst the burning question on each analyst's mind, as Neal Froneman discussed his company's strategy, "How much dilution should he expect?" Froneman suggested his firm had already received both debt and equity financing offers. An analyst pointed out SXR had but C$100 million in the till. That may be a worry, but not just yet. The company has to pursue its due diligence before the deal closes. But Froneman is optimistic, despite the daunting price tag, "I think the value that will be generated out of this will be significantly more than that (US$500 million all in costs)." By the way, there was a certain irony as an American listening to Canadian analysts questioning a South African engineer about uranium properties in Wyoming and Utah.
And if it all works out, where will the company be by the time it is producing uranium in the United States? We asked if SXR Uranium One would be listed on the New York Stock Exchange in a few years with a market capitalization of $3 billion. Instantly, he responded, "We actually see it significantly more than that. We think without getting to the NYSE, we could see market caps of $2 billion. Certainly, going to the NYSE, and continuing to grow our business, there is no reason we can't become a $6 to 7 billion company."
He told us it would be inevitable his company would have a U.S. listing. "That will make it a lot easier for our U.S. investors to invest in us," he explained. "I think it will clearly demonstrate that we would like to be part of the U.S. Not only because of our U.S. assets, but we've got to be a U.S. company as well."
Still, Neal Froneman remains humble and considers himself fortunate, "What amazes me is the potential is not recognized like it should be. I've been trying to do these deals, and I've been extremely concerned that somebody would put us through the post. I am very bullish about the United States."
This past February, we interviewed Wyoming Governor Dave Freudenthal who announced to uranium miners, "Bring us your projects." Apparently, someone in South Africa was listening. And soon these two gentlemen will likely shake hands.
James Finch contributes to StockInterview.com and other publications. Visit http://www.stockinterview.com to download your free copy of "Investing in the Great Uranium Bull Market: A Practical Investor's Guide to Uranium Stocks." You can always write to James Finch at jfinch@stockinterview.com
