We talked with Sprott Asset Management analyst Eric Nuttall. With bloated natural gas storage levels, Natural and CBM gas stocks have gotten crushed. Is there relief in sight? What are the fundamentals which might drive natural gas prices, and subsequently stock prices, much higher, and is this a good time to invest?
StockInterview: How would bad weather, such as a hurricane, impact natural gas prices?
Eric Nuttall: Short term, you would see both natural gas and related stocks surge. If a hurricane strikes the producing area of the Gulf, and we almost need one to – to correct the surplus supply situation. Initially, you'll have an emotional upward response. Only after assessing the status of production platforms and sub-sea infrastructure would we know the longer-term impact.
StockInterview: Should investors be watching the Weather Channel and ready to phone their stockbrokers?
Eric Nuttall: Timing on any natural gas investment right now is tricky. You need to have a medium- to longer-term focus. We probably have another two months of volatility. There are two camps right now on natural gas. One camp is saying that due to bloated storage levels companies are going to increasingly lay down their drilling rigs, cut production guidance, and stress their balance sheets. Then in the fall, when companies set their 2007 budgets, they will be using low gas prices and presenting moderating production growth profiles to their investors.
StockInterview: What does the other camp say?
Eric Nuttall: Another camp says that the current natural gas strip already discounts the present and forecasted storage levels. Also, stocks are cheap on a price-to-cash flow and price-to-net asset value ratios, and now is the time to load up on the stocks. I lean towards this viewpoint. But I am also admitting that until the fall, barring a severe hurricane, it is likely that the stocks are going to trade sideways, as opposed to in any clear direction.
James Finch contributes to StockInterview.com and other publications. Visit http://www.stockinterview.com to download your free copy of "Investing in the Great Uranium Bull Market: A Practical Investor's Guide to Uranium Stocks." You can always write to James Finch at jfinch@stockinterview.com
