Part Three: A Commodities Interview with James Rogers
By: James Finch | Posted: 08th July 2006
We talked with Jim Rogers, legendary commodities trader, who picked the bottom of the commodities bull market in 1999. Bestselling author, biker capitalist and widely followed, Jim Rogers talks about what he's now investing in.
StockInterview: In an interview with Reuters, about a month ago, you told the reporter that cleaner burning fuels, such as natural gas would out-perform oil. Do you still believe natural gas will perform well, comparative to the rest of the commodities in this bull market?
Jim Rogers: Oh, yes. As I said, the bull market is not over yet. The bull market has years to go, as far as I can see. Speaking specifically of natural gas, on a historic basis it's much cheaper than crude oil, or even coal, at this stage. It's gotten whacked down because there has been a glut of natural gas – in the U.S. anyway – which is one of the main markets for natural gas. But longer term, natural gas production is declining in North America.
StockInterview: How does coalbed methane gas fit into this picture?
Jim Rogers: As long as it's economic, it is a viable source of energy. You will see people using methane. You'll see people using lots of viable alternatives as the price of energy stays up and goes higher and higher.
StockInterview: Speaking of cleaner burning fuels, how do you feel about uranium and nuclear power? Both uranium and nuclear energy appear to be undergoing a renaissance.
Jim Rogers: Well, there is a revival of nuclear power. Nuclear power is cheaper than many other sources of energy, and so it is having a comeback, if you will. In many parts of the world, it never went away. The French never stopped using nuclear power. The Koreans never stopped using nuclear power. Other people are now coming to nuclear power. The Chinese are going to build at least 25 nuclear power plants in the next fifteen years or so. Even in the U.S., some of the environmentalists are starting re-examine nuclear power because it is cleaner than coal, or some of the other carbon based energy sources. If it's controlled properly, then nuclear power can be extremely attractive, both cost-wise and environmental-wise. The huge stockpiles of uranium, which were built up during the cold war are being used, are being depleted. So, I see a great future for uranium and nuclear power.
StockInterview: Spot uranium prices have steadily risen for nearly six years without a correction. How do you look at uranium as a commodities trader?
Jim Rogers: Well, whenever something goes straight up for six years, without even a correction, one has to be worried. Obviously, corrections are normal in financial markets. Whether there's going to be a correction in the next year or two, I don't have a clue. More or less, it is following the oil market, as you probably know. If and when oil has a big correction, I suspect uranium will too. They don't necessarily move together, but to some extent they have and probably will. Until somebody brings a lot of new uranium on stream, though, the surprise will be how high the price of uranium stays, and how high it eventually goes. There aren't any big uranium mines being opened anywhere in the world. Uranium is still worrisome to some people, so I would suspect it will take more than a decade to bring a new big uranium mine on stream, anywhere in the world.
StockInterview: It's been about twenty years since a new uranium deposit was discovered.
Jim Rogers: That's what I'm saying. It takes a long time. Expanding a mine is different from opening a new mine. There has been one lead mine opened in the world in 25 years. Some people are starting to expand production from lead mines and copper mines. But this idea of bringing huge new mines on the scene is just not happening anywhere in the world in most commodities. One reason is because in the last 25 years, unfortunately, nobody got an engineering degree. Everybody was getting MBAs in stocks and bonds. So, there is a huge shortage of engineers in the world right now; not just engineers, even workers to work in mines. All the people got old or retired or died out. And not only engineers and workers, you can't get tires for your tractors. You can't get tractors. There's a shortage of everything because nobody has been investing in productive capacity. You've got to have tractors. You've got to have tires. You've got to have engineers. You've got to have everything to bring new capacity on stream. While there are shortages of all these things, that's why the bull markets last so long. Bull markets historically have lasted 15 to 23 years. This one probably will too.
James Finch contributes to StockInterview.com and other publications. Visit http://www.stockinterview.com to download your free copy of "Investing in the Great Uranium Bull Market: A Practical Investor's Guide to Uranium Stocks." You can always write to James Finch at jfinch@stockinterview.com
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James Finch is a contributing editor for StockInterview.com and other publications. http://www.stockinterview.com
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